The Streak Had To Be Broken Sometime

After 38 straight months of increases in the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks when compared to the same month a year previously, the streak has ended. The NSSF-adjusted NICS checks for the month of August 2013 were 2.5% lower than August 2012.

The August 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,016,559 is a decrease of 2.5 percent compared to the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,042,924 in August 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted August 2013 NICS figure of 1,408,468 reflects a 7.0 percent decrease from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,514,696 in August 2012.

This NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,016,559, while being a 2.5 percent decrease from the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,042,924 in August 2012, is an increase of 24.6 percent over checks in August 2011.

The streak of increases began in May 2010.

It should be noted that NICS checks are not a perfect correlation with firearm sales. This is because a number of states such as Connecticut and Utah use the NICS database to perform background checks on applicants for concealed carry permits as well as existing holders.

As to the streak being broken, we saw signs of the slowing last month. While ammo is still in relatively short supply, you can find a full gun case including AR-15s at most Walmarts.


6 thoughts on “The Streak Had To Be Broken Sometime”

  1. What's the over/under on how long until the anti's tout this as the death knell of guns in America? Clear evidence that the average American has seen the light, and is packing the family truckster to go turn in all their ebil Assault Death Machines.

    I figure on 12 hours.

  2. And other states such as Nebraska accept either a Purchase Permit or your CHP in place of NICS. Not a single gun bought in Nebraska would necessarily hit the NICS-count radar screen.

    1. @Hectate: It is the same here in NC. While I have filled out quite a few Form 4473s, no NICS check was run due to my NC CHP. I have heard anecdotally that many people obtain the CHP to simplify their firearms purchases. They don't need to obtain a Pistol Purchase Permit from their local sheriff nor do they go through the NICS check.

  3. Alternately, how many more purchases are being done legally person to person instead of from dealers?

    I would feel confident that there are a lot of gun owners, old and new, who really weren't actively aware of PTP sales being legal in their state and never thought of doing it if they were.

    Given that many folks did the "hoarding" type buys and thus have product to sell to improve their collections, where many stores don't, and the growing sense that "they" are "after our guns" and are compiling lists, maybe a lot more sales are deliberately taking place off the NICs books.

    If I can get the same gun without waiting for it to come into stock, for about the same cost, without having a record for the gummint to store, why -wouldn't- I buy that way?

  4. > It should be noted that NICS checks are not a perfect correlation with firearm sales. This is because a number of states such as Connecticut and Utah use the NICS database to perform background checks on applicants for concealed carry permits

    The NSSF page does note that their chart shows "adjusted NICS," with these checks backed out of the data. Not sure how accurate it is, but worth pointing out.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *