Hillary Regains Lead In NH But Still Within Margin Of Error

I normally do not report on the Democratic primary unless it reflects on gun rights. However, I got an email on Tuesday with an offer to see the pre-release results of the Topline WBUR survey of likely New Hampshire Democratic voters so long as I didn’t release the results before 5am EDT Wednesday.

I’m no fool. I jumped on the offer!

It looks like that post-Democratic debate that Hillary Clinton (D-carpetbagger) is now back in the lead against Bernie Sanders (D-VT). Even though Sanders and Clinton are essentially tied, the movement by Clinton from 31% to 38% is beyond the margin of error.

Vote preference with leaners Sept 2015 Oct 2015 
35% 34%
31% 38%
Joe Biden 14% 9%
1% 1%
Jim Webb 2% 2%
1% less than 1%
NA 0%
Some other
4% 4%
Would not
2% 3%
Don’t Know /
10% 9%
Margin of
error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

The poll did have some interesting tidbits. First, the majority of those polled thought Clinton could win (71%) in the general election while only a minority thought Sanders could win (39%). Clinton’s numbers rose significantly from September to October.

Second, while the overwhelming majority (80%) thought Bernie Sanders was trustworthy, only a bare majority (53%) thought Hillary Clinton was trustworthy. These numbers stayed consistent (+/- 2% points) between September and October.

It will be interesting to see how this continues to play out.

WBUR Boston has their take on their poll here. You can read the whole poll results here including the questions and methodology.