polling

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It Is All In The Wording Of The Question

April 2, 2025 by 0 Comments

I received a press release this afternoon from Everytown saying 77% of North Carolinians oppose permitless carry. They are basing this on a poll by Elon University on behalf of Everytown.

Today, Everytown for Gun Safety released recent polling that shows a significant majority (77%) of residents in North Carolina oppose permitless carry. This comes as lawmakers are attempting to pass HB 5 and SB 50, bills that would dismantle North Carolina’s existing concealed carry permitting laws and allow individuals to carry concealed, hidden guns in public spaces without a permit—effectively eliminating all safeguards put in place by the current permitting system, including a background check, safety training, and live-fire training.

One advantage of my years ago graduate training in political science is that I know the results are all dependent upon how you word the question.

So how did the Elon University poll word the question and what were the real results?

Currently, North Carolina requires a permit to carry a concealed handgun. This permit involves an application fee, safety training and a background check. The General Assembly is considering a change to allow concealed carry without a permit. Do you support or oppose removing the requirement of a permit to legally carry a concealed handgun?

    The actual opposition based upon the poll question was 54% and not the aforementioned 77%. Republicans and independents were more likely than Democrats to support permitless concealed carry.

    I wonder what the results might have been if the third sentence read, “The General Assembly is considering a change to allow concealed carry without a permit like 29 other states.” The question could have gone on to add that open carry without a permit is a constitutional right in North Carolina thanks to State v. Kerner (1921).

    According to Elon University, they surveyed 800 people and the poll has a margin of error of 4%. Other questions in the poll dealt with the renaming of Fort Liberty back to Fort Bragg, tax rates, response to Hurricane Helene, trust in the NC Supreme Court, and approval of Gov. Josh Stein (D-NC). Nowhere in the release on the poll does it give the actual numbers of people sampled by party, race, or sex. In other words, we do not know if the poll was overweighted with Democrats or women who were more likely to favor gun control.

    While polls do have their usefulness, constitutional rights should never be governed by polls or popular opinion.

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    Comments On Polling

    November 4, 2020 by 3 Comments

    I came across a couple of comments on polls and polling this morning that make some sense.

    First from my friend Michael Bane:

    “Polls” are nothing more than psy-ops operations designed to demoralize voters ahead of an election; even an “average of polling data” is nothing more than an “average of lies,” which translates into a lie.

    And then this Tweet from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) who was inundated by tons of out of state money for his opponent Jaime Harrison. In the end, all that money was wasted.

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    Support For An AWB Hits Low

    October 27, 2016 by 3 Comments

    The Gallup released a poll yesterday that should cast doubts in the minds of any politician proposing a new “assault weapons” ban. Barely one-third of those polled would support a law that “would make it illegal to manufacture, sell, or possess semi-automatic guns known as assault rifles.”

    Support for any such “assault weapons” ban only amounted to 36% of those polled. By contrast, the number opposing such a ban comprise 61% of those polled by Gallup. This question has been asked for the last 20 years. The high point in support for such a ban was in the year 2000 when 59% of those polled supported such a law.

    Support for a ban does divide along partisan lines with Republicans and independents being strongly against such a ban. Just as importantly, only 50% of Democrats support such a ban which is down from 63% as recently as year 2000.

    Gun ownership does play a role in the results with those households owning firearms more likely to be against any new ban than those who don’t. Nonetheless, both groups, owners and non-owners alike, have a majority of respondents who are against a new ban.

    A longer term question asked by Gallup has to do with whether the laws governing the sale of firearms should be stronger, weaker, or left as is. This question has been asked since 1990. Currently, 55% of those polled believed laws should be made stricter. This is up from 2012 when only 44% agreed that laws should be made stricter but down from a high of 78% in 1990.

    This is just speculation on my part but I think if you were to run correlations of these numbers with the amount of money spent by Bloomberg’s organizations and other allied gun prohibitionist groups pushing “universal background checks” you would find a strong correlation. It does illustrate that the forces on the side of gun rights need to do a better job explaining that the “gun show loophole” (sic) is just a myth and that Bloomberg’s background checks cover a lot more than mere sales.

    It should be pointed out that rights and the free exercise thereof should never be predicated on support in the polls. Public opinion is both fluid and fickle whereas rights should be solid and enduring. Polling is better reserved for determining which side is doing a better job of getting their message across than for making changes in laws.