by The blog NRA In Danger has posted another look at the NRA’s finances by former director Rocky Marshall. As I noted in introducing his guest post on this blog, he has significant expertise in examining a company’s or organization’s finances. Rocky brings up the concept of industry related metrics as a way to validate financial forecasts. As it is, he holds that the NRA’s forecasts for revenue are unrealistic and have no substantiating business plan to validate them.
From Rocky at NRA In Danger:
A Realistic Projection: The obvious relationship most closely associated with NRA revenues are U.S. Gun sales¹. In reviewing US gun sales data, NRA Revenues will increase or decrease as gun sales vary from year to year. From 2004 through 2019, the NRA received on average $25 for every gun sold in the United States. However, after the breaking news of corruption in 2019, the NRA revenue dropped 48% to $13/gun sold.
The ratio of NRA Revenue/US Gun Sales is a useful metric because revenue for the NRA can be easily calculated for 2023 with a high degree of certainty. Based on the current declining trend of US gun sales, it is projected that total US gun sales will be similar to historical (pre-covid) norms of roughly 13 million guns sold². With this in mind, a quantifiable estimate of projected revenues for the NRA in 2023 is $169 million (13 million guns sold at $13/gun).
The NRA is projecting $230 million in revenue, which would equate to $18 for every gun sold in the US. This is the same group that also planned $241.2M for last year and missed this estimate by $36M. The NRA estimates are not based on any practical industry metrics or upon a viable business plan to increase revenue; but, instead are misleading the BOD once again into a false premise.
Using firearm sales as a proxy in the metric is interesting and makes sense. Both actual gun sales and actual NRA revenue are known from government reports. Actual gun sales are found from the Annual Firearms Manufacturing and Exportation Report submitted to BATFE and the NRA”s revenue is reported on the IRS Form 990. Forecasts on future firearm sales do come from the NSSF and the industry in various forms. The FBI’s NICS data could be used but, as we know, it isn’t a direct correlation with firearm sales. The NSSF-adjusted numbers would be more accurate.
When comparing the ratio of NRA Revenue/US Gun Sale for the pre-2019 and post-2019 time periods, there is another factor in play that was not mentioned. Pre-2019, it was often the case that if you purchased a new firearm from one of the major manufacturers, it would come with a coupon entitling the buyer to a free one-year membership in the NRA. I know Taurus offered this and I seem to remember getting the same offer from Marlin and Ruger. I also remember the Ruger campaign where they would donate $1 for each firearm sold if they reached the 1 million mark. That was in the 2012-2013 timeframe. The key point here is that the industry seems to have backed away from the NRA once the dirty laundry started coming out.
The second part of Rocky’s post on NRA In Danger deals with the cost of corruption in terms of lost revenue. Read the whole thing as Rocky provides hard numbers of the revenue drop and the amount is shocking. Suffice it to say, the longer that Wayne remains as CEO/Executive VP of the NRA, the more potential lost revenue.