Reciprocity Passed The House But Will It Pass The Senate

Ian Argent, in a guest post at Shall Not Be Questioned, has run the numbers on HR 38 to see the chances it will pass in the Senate. He compared how the Senate voted on a proposal for carry reciprocity put forth by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in 2013 and how he expects them to vote now.

Starting with the 2013 vote (57 Ayes to invoke cloture), I did up a spreadsheet of the likely vote results in 2017, based on current occupancy, the 2013 vote, and the Senators political stances on the issue.

I came out with maximum of 59 Aye votes (assuming Luther Strange gets to vote Aye or his replacement votes Aye).

The vote delta (because we had both gains and losses)

NH: -1 (Maggie Hassan replaced Kelly Ayotte)

IA: +1 (Joni Ernst replaced Tom Harkin)

SD: +1 (Mike Rounds replaced Tim Johnson)

WV: +1 (Shelley Moore replaced John Rockefeller)

However, what I don’t see is the 60th vote. I broke out the Nay votes who are in seats up in 2018 in states that voted for Trump

Bill Nelson is a hard NO
Claire McCaskill is a hard NO
Sherrod Brown is a hard NO
Bob Casey is a firm No
Tammy Baldwin is a hard NO

Unfortunately, I think Ian is correct. So long as the Senate has the filibuster on everything but judicial nominees, then 60 votes are going to be required.

I was looking at the vote in the House on HR 822 back in 2011. It was interesting to compare that with the vote on HR 38. HR 38 passed the House last week by a vote of 231-198. The ayes included 6 Democrats and 225 Republicans while the nays included 184 Democrats and 14 Republican. By contrast, the vote back in 2011 was 272-154 in favor of passage. The big difference can be attributed to 43 Democrats voting in favor of concealed carry reciprocity.

Of those 43 Democrats who voted in favor of concealed carry reciprocity in 2011, many are no longer in the House. A couple such as Martin Heinrich (D-NM) and Joe Donnelly (D-IN) have moved on to the Senate. In fact, they were two of the Democrats who voted in favor of Cornyn’s bill in 2013. What is disturbing, however, are the 13 Democrats who voted in favor of reciprocity in 2011 who voted no on it in 2017 even though the bill contained the Fix NICS Act. What made them switch their vote on reciprocity for an aye to a nay? Did the Democrats crack the whip on those members or was it that they were warned that they would have a primary opponent funded by Mike Bloomberg?

If any of the these 13 are your representative in Congress, I’d be asking why.

  1. Andre Carson (D-IN)
  2. Jim Cooper (D-TN)
  3. Joe Courtney (D-CT)
  4. Peter DeFazio (D-OR)
  5. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) (though he was a surprise aye vote)
  6. Brian Higgins (D-NY)
  7. Rick Larsen (D-WA)
  8. Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM)
  9. Tim Ryan (D-OH)
  10. Terri Sewell (D-AL)
  11. Adam Smith (D-WA)
  12. Tim Walz (D-MN)
  13. Gene Green (D-TX)

Sure To Cause Exploding Heads At The Brady Campaign

Thanks to a Tweet by Mark Vanderberg of the Gun Rights Radio Network, I came across an article in the Las Vegas Sun from early August that is sure to cause heads to explode at the Brady Campaign and all the other gun prohibitionist groups.

In Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, the two leading contenders for the Democrat nomination are arguing who has better pro-gun credentials and which one is better liked by the NRA.

It’s not often that two Democrats try to outdo each other on who can best push the National Rifle Association’s legislation — even in Nevada.

But that was at the heart of a skirmish between state Sen. John Lee, D-North Las Vegas, and Assembly Speaker John Oceguera, D-Las Vegas, in the middle of the legislative session this year.

Now, the two Democrats are potentially facing each other in a primary for Congress, a fight that usually sees the candidates work to outdo each other on who can best appeal to the party’s most liberal voters.

Both men have an A or better rating from the NRA’s Political Victory Fund. Oceguera was rated A and endorsed by the NRA-PVF in his 2010 election while Lee was rated A+ and endorsed his 2008 election.

It seems the two of them have been going at it since earlier in the year over who is better on gun rights. Lee fired the first shot saying in a letter to Oceguera in which he accused him of “plagarizing” other gun bills:

“I hope that in your zest for self promotion and aggrandizement in trying to receive a coveted A+ rating from the National Rifle Association that you haven’t jeopardized the ability to pass sensible and much needed legislation concerning the gun rights of Nevadans,” Lee wrote in a letter to Oceguera.

Oceguera responded back that he was proud of the work he was doing for gun rights, have been endorsed by the NRA, and that Lee was “very angry about the legislation I am sponsoring, which protects the right of gun owners all across this state.”

Oceguera’s omnibus gun bill which lowers the cost of a concealed carry permit and changed the requirement from qualifying with each semi-auto pistol to only one semi-auto pistol passed overwhelmingly. Unfortunately, Lee’s signature bill which would have allowed campus carry at universities in Nevada and which was NRA endorsed didn’t pass.

This Democratic in-fighting over who is better for gun rights is a good reminder that the “R” in NRA doesn’t stand for Republican. Whether it is Oceguera or Lee who faces Rep. Joe Keck (R-NV) for the 3rd Congressional District seat, gun owners are in good shape with any of the three.