by The Instapundit mentioned this handicapping of those Senate Democrats at -risk up for re-election the other day. It was done by Moe Lane and offers his assessment of their re-election chances. The ranking leaves out four Democrats who are up for re-election – Coons, Durbin, Harkin, and Reed – and I’m assuming that is because they face no risk of losing.
Using Lane’s assessment as a starting point, I went back and added in each senator’s 2008 NRA-PVF rating and their current GOA rating. The chart with this is below:
|
State
|
Senator
|
Est. Risk
|
NRA (2008)
|
GOA (2012)
|
|
Alaska
|
Mark Begich
|
Serious Risk
|
AQ
|
D
|
|
Arkansas
|
Mark Pryor
|
Some Risk
|
C-
|
F
|
|
Colorado
|
Mark Udall
|
Some Risk
|
C
|
F
|
|
Louisiana
|
Mary Landrieu
|
Serious Risk
|
C
|
F
|
|
Massachusetts
|
John Kerry
|
Only if vacant
|
F
|
F-
|
|
Michigan
|
Carl Levin
|
Low Risk
|
F
|
F-
|
|
Minnesota
|
Al Franken
|
Serious Risk
|
F
|
F
|
|
Montana
|
Max Baucus
|
Some Risk
|
A+
|
D-
|
|
New Hampshire
|
Jeanne Shaheen
|
Some Risk
|
F
|
F
|
|
New Jersey
|
Frank Lautenberg
|
Only if vacant
|
F
|
F-
|
|
New Mexico
|
Tom Udall
|
Low Risk
|
C-
|
F
|
|
North Carolina
|
Kay Hagan
|
Serious Risk
|
F
|
F
|
|
Oregon
|
Jeff Merkley
|
Some Risk
|
F
|
F
|
|
South Dakota
|
Tim Johnson
|
Serious Risk
|
A
|
F
|
|
Virginia
|
Mark Warner
|
Low Risk
|
A
|
F
|
|
West Virginia
|
Jay Rockefeller
|
Low Risk
|
D
|
F
|
Of the five ranked as “Serious Risk”, two are A/AQ rated by the NRA, two are F rated by the NRA, and one is C rated by the NRA. While all of these senators should be the target of letters and calls regarding the various gun control proposals, the five at “serious risk” should be deluged with calls and letters from those of us who believe in the Second Amendment.
There is an old saying that goes a senator should be a statesman in his first two years, should be half politician and half statesman in the middle two years, and damn well better be all politician in the last two years. Let’s use that to our advantage in this fight for our gun rights.
UPDATE: Sen. Jay Rockefeller announced today that he will be retiring at the end of his term in 2014. That means a low risk seat in the chart above just became an open seat and one that can be picked up by a pro-gun rights candidate.
I mostly agree with the list. I think Al Franken is stronger then people realize. I think Hagan is vulnerable…we need to keep up the pressure on her.
@George: I don't know enough about Minnesota politics to speculate on Franken. On Hagan, I do think she is vulnerable provided the Republicans put up a decent candidate. If NC Republicans can stick together like they did in 2012, she's toast.
No one of consequence wanted to run against Liddy Dole in 2008 and Hagan got the nomination by default. She lucked out that Dole ran such a horrible campaign as well as having rarely been in North Carolina. That plus the Obama coattails are what put her in office.
Great post! It would be even great-er if we kept this available and added to that chart. How about links for the local opposing party? Links to opponents once people start filing. One central place where grassroots can get information to make a difference. It's a shame folks slept through the last election but it doesn't look likely to happen next time, let's make sure of it and make sure it goes for freedom.
Begich is a sound pro-gun vote, he actually co-sponsored the Democratic concealed carry reciprocity bill in the Senate and has indicated support for moving suppressors to Title 1.
His only downside is his vote to affirm Obama's SC picks.