constitutional carry

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Every Picture Tells A Story, Part Four

October 21, 2015 by 5 Comments

I published Every Picture Tells A Story, Part Three last Wednesday. It was an update of the 2011 post that tracked the spread of firearms freedom as evidenced by the growth in shall-issue and constitutional carry. It was released on October 15th to commemorate the effective date of constitutional carry in the state of Maine.

Also published in 2011 was another collaboration with Rob Vance called Every Picture Tells A Story, Part Two which plotted annual FBI violent crime rates against the growth of shall-issue concealed carry. We explicitly stated back then that there wasn’t a positive correlation between violent crime rates and liberalized carry laws. We also said that proving a negative correlation would take more a more rigorous statistical approach. However, we took note of Linoge’s work regarding the negative correlation between crime involving firearms and gun ownership. I would note that Linoge has updated his work and the negative correlation is even stronger in 2015 (-0.8016) than in 2011.

Rob has updated his graph to reflect the changes since 2011 in both crime rates and the growth of shall-issue and constitutional carry.

When Illinois, the fifth largest state in the US, was forced to adopt shall-issue concealed carry, the anti-rights movement predicted blood in the streets of Chicago and elsewhere in Illinois. That is, more blood than is normal in Chicago with its long history of stringent gun control. The graph above normalizes the crime rates as per 100,000. If shall-issue concealed carry would have caused an increase in crime rates in Illinois, it would have shown up in the graph.

Rob notes this about the graph and what it illustrates:

Every time the citizens of our states manage to convince their legislators that individual self-defense via unrestricted or shall issue concealed carry is the best approach, the press repeats the shibboleth that such laws will result in “blood in the streets.” Well, the press has been wrong about that, and they’ve been wrong repeatedly and over many many years. Then again, newspaper circulation is down and this kind of lazy reporting might be one of the reasons why. Violent crime rates, including the murder rates, are down in the United States from a peak in the early 1990’s, but you wouldn’t know it from our press. The diagram below starts with data gathered to demonstrate the change in state laws in favor of no or de minimis regulation of concealed carry of firearms for self-defense (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QxBfs9acTUH8hL1OtkitcivuCzr4IQKjKOQ4_obK61c/pubhtml), and integrates FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data on the national level of violent crime over time.

Concealed carry laws matter because they change the balance of power in the favor of law abiding citizens over violent criminals, increasing both the real and the perceived risk associated with criminal behavior. Over the last 25 plus years the rate of violent crimes in the US has fallen substantially, and this change runs directly counter to the increasing availability of concealed carry as a self-defense option for Americans. We are now experiencing lowered rates of violent crime last seen in the early 1970s and murder rates from the mid-1960s. As John Lott has written (extensively I might add), “More Guns = Less Crime.” Correlation isn’t causality is a truth from statistics; yet it is entirely truthful to say that the normalization of armed self-defense is taking place in a period when the rate of violent crime is falling in the US. Any other conclusion does not follow the data.

Links to our data sources are below:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/04/17/despite-lower-crime-rates-support-for-gun-rights-increases

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

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Every Picture Tells A Story, Part Three

October 15, 2015 by 11 Comments

Four years ago Rob Vance and I collaborated on a post showing the progress of concealed carry from 1986 through 2011. The post was anchored by a graphic that showed the growth in shall-issue carry and constitutional carry as a percentage of the United State population. At that time, approximately two-thirds of all Americans lived in a state that allowed either shall-issue or constitutional carry. In other words, shall-issue had become the new normal as it continues to be.

Effective October 15th, Maine becomes the seventh state to have constitutional carry. Rob thought now would be a good time to revisit this advancement of freedom and gun rights. I agree because that two-thirds of all Americans in 2011 has become three-fourths of all Americans in 2015.

As Rob explains:

The sea change in the legal status of concealed carry in the United States described below in graphic form follows a still ongoing grass roots effort at the state level, yet with national implications. There is now a fundamental recognition by the American public that giving advantages to criminals over law-abiding citizens, by means of law, is a logical and moral error. This realization has driven the liberalization of state level laws regarding concealed carry since Florida led the way in the modern era beginning in 1987. Twenty-six years later, Illinois became the last state with a de jure ban on concealed carry – passing “shall issue” legislation allowing legalized concealed carry for its citizens as a result of losing Moore v. Madigan and Shepard v. Madigan in the 7th US Circuit Court of Appeals. First permits under the new law were issued in 2014 in that state. The restoration of this fundamental freedom will continue by legislation where we can and by litigation where we cannot.

The two biggest changes shown in the graphic below are the addition of Illinois to the shall-issue column and the growth of constitutional carry from just two small states (Vermont and Alaska) to a total of seven today.

Rob and I are working on an update to Every Picture Tells A Story, Part Two as well as new effort called The Next Wave. This new effort will examine the growth of constitutional carry and its chances in states where it has been introduced but either not passed or vetoed by the governor.

Given that neither Rob nor I believe in hiding our data nor how we put things into categories, you can see it in this appendix.

As of October 15, 2015 here’s the box score in detail state by
state:
Unrestricted Carry States (5.1 %
US population)
Alaska,
Arkansas, Arizona, Kansas, Maine (as of 10/15/15), Vermont, and Wyoming
Shall Issue States (67.5 %
US population)
Alabama,
Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska,
Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio,
Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas,
Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin
May Issue States (27 %
US population)
California (some counties are
effectively No Issue, and others are much more permissive), Connecticut (*since
2013 I have accounted this as May Issue, as local conditions have changed from
permissive to much less so), Delaware, District of Columbia (obviously not a
state, but treated as one for this analysis), Maryland, Massachusetts, New
Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island
No Issue State (.4 %
US population)
Hawaii (the legal status of Hawaii
is such that while permits are legally available, none are issued, which is why
it is counted as No Issue in this analysis, rather than fitting into the May
Issue category which it’s legislation warrants).
A word or two on definition of terms used in this analysis/graphic:
UNRESTRICTED: no permit is required
to carry a concealed firearm, aka Constitutional Carry
SHALL ISSUE: permit required but
the state is obligated to issue a permit if the applicant meets certain
criteria (age, no felony record, no drug arrests, etc.); i.e., the state has no
discretion.
MAY ISSUE: permit required but
local authorities (e.g. sheriffs’ offices) have discretion in the form of
requirements above and beyond what the state requires.
NO ISSUE: private citizens are
effectively prohibited from carrying firearms for self-defense outside the home
Find the detail data here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QxBfs9acTUH8hL1OtkitcivuCzr4IQKjKOQ4_obK61c/pubhtml
See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_carry
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concealed_carry_in_the_United_States
http://legallyarmed.com/ccw_statistics.htm
Thanks also to Jeff Dege at 
http://www.gun-nuttery.com.
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As Maine Goes…

July 8, 2015 by 4 Comments

There is an old saying that says, “As Maine Goes, So Goes the Nation.” One could only help that they continue being a bellweather state when it comes to gun rights.

Today, Gov. Paul LePage (R-ME) signed LD 652 which makes Maine the latest constitutional carry state. While constitutional carry went into effect on July 1st in Kansas, New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) vetoed a similar constitutional carry bill on Monday. She had promised the Demanding Mommies she’d veto the law when it crossed her desk.

The text of the bill can be found here. It will go into effect 90 days after the legislature adjourns for the session.

The NRA-ILA just released a couple of news items on the bill’s signing. They can be found here and here.

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Earl Ray Says No To Constitutional Carry In The Mountaineer State

March 20, 2015 by 5 Comments

West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D-WV) vetoed SB 347 this morning it was in the interest of public safety. SB 347 which passed both houses of the West Virginia legislature by overwhelming majorities. The bill would have made the state the fifth to adopt constitutional carry. While open carry is legal without a permit, concealed carry permits require mandated training and cost $105.

From Tomblin’s press release:

“Throughout my career, I have strongly supported the Second Amendment, as demonstrated by my repeated endorsements and high grades from the National Rifle Association. However, I must also be responsive to the apprehension of law enforcement officers from across the state, who have concerns about the bill as it relates to the safety of their fellow officers. It also would eliminate the required gun safety training courses for those applying for a concealed carry permit. In light of these concerns and in the interest of public safety for all West Virginians, I have vetoed Senate Bill 347.”

Another politician who had received high grades from the NRA at one time, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), was already under fire for his opposition to SB 347 in which he said West Virginians believed in “gunsense”. That is one of the code words popular with Shannon Watts and the Everytown Moms for Illegal Mayors. The Firearms Policy Coalition said that Manchin who claims to be a Life member of the NRA needs to be booted from the organization. As Sebastian noted today, he’s not sure West Virginians much care for Manchin and we’ll find out for sure in 2018.

The West Virginia Citizen’s Defense League hasn’t not commented publicly on the veto yet and are still considering their options. However, their Facebook page has a very active comment thread on it. It appears that a veto override will require a special session of the legislature.

Legislators on both sides of the aisle are indicating that they will vote in favor of the bill when it comes up again.

Del. Rupie Phillips (D-Logan, 24) supported the legislation in the House of Delegates and promised to do so again.

“We spent a lot of time on this issue and I hate that we’re going to have to spend time again on it at the beginning of next year’s session,” Phillips said.

Meanwhile, Del. Mike Folk (R-Berkeley, 63) has said the bill will come up again in the next session. He also dismissed the supposed concern that it would put law enforcement at risk.

He dismissed claims that it would have put law enforcement officers at risk. “They assume (already) that every person is armed, so the safety issue is not a good argument,” Folk said.

He is promising to bring the proposal up again during next year’s Regular Legislative Session.

“We’ll do it again next year and we’ll make sure we do it early enough that he can veto it next year and the same thing that happened with the pain capable bill will happen with this bill,” Folk said, referencing this year’s legislative override of Gov. Tomblin’s veto of the bill that would have banned abortions in West Virginia after 20 weeks.

Given the overwhelming majorities in favor of the bill, 71-29 in the House and 30-4 in the Senate, I think it is a safe bet that when it comes up again, it will pass.

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Constitutional Carry Passes Montana House

April 13, 2011 by 1 Comment

From the NRA:

Permitless Carry Passes Montana House; Pending in State Senate

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Today, the state House voted 69 to 29 to adopt the Conference Committee report for NRA-supported House Bill 271. Sponsored by state Representative Krayton Kerns (R-Laurel), the current language of HB 271 simply says that the prohibition on concealed carry does not apply to “a person who is eligible to possess a handgun under state or federal law.”

Existing law allows any person who can legally own and possess a firearm to carry it openly, either loaded or unloaded, anywhere in the state, including within city limits. Additionally, law-abiding citizens are authorized to carry firearms concealed, without a permit, anywhere outside city limits. Law-abiding citizens do not suddenly turn into criminals when they cross the arbitrary boundary into a city. It makes no sense to allow them to carry concealed without a permit on one side of the line but not the other!

HB 271 is still pending for a vote in the state Senate to concur on the Conference Committee report. Please contact your state Senator TODAY and respectfully urge him or her to support the Conference Committee amendment to House Bill 271. Legislators can be reached via phone at (406) 444-4800 and via e-mail by clicking here. If you need help identifying your state Senator, please click here.

Thank you for working hard to ensure that HB 271 becomes a reality!

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South Carolina Considers Constitutional Carry

February 18, 2011 by 3 Comments

Rep. Mike Pitts of Laurens, a former Greenville police officer, has introduced House Bill 3292 which would make South Carolina the newest state to authorize constitutional carry.

In addition to Rep. Pitts, the bill has 37 co-sponsors. The SC House Judiciary Committee held hearings on the bill today. According to an article in The State, the bill has been delayed due to amendments meant to improve the law.

“It’s unfortunate that that there’s so much in this bill that needs to be fixed,” said Robert Butler, a lobbyist for South Carolina GrassRoots GunRights, which asked for more than a dozen amendments.

But state Rep. Thad Viers, a Myrtle Beach Republican, said many amendments would doom the bill to reduce the need to get a concealed weapons permit.

“It gives us time to make corrections – necessary corrections,” said state Rep. Mike Pitts, a Laurens Republican. “I have no problem with us taking the time to make sure we get it right.”

Just like when Arizona was passing constitutional carry, a concealed carry instructor who feels his livelihood is in danger has come out against the change. Ted Landreth of Shooterszone Tactical makes the usual – but erroneous – comparison to getting a driver’s license and the need for training. The difference is that driving is not an enumerated constitutional right. I would wager that those instructors in Arizona who supported constitutional carry have all the business they can handle.

UPDATE: House Bill 3292 was approved unanimously by the SC State House Judiciary General Laws subcommittee on Feb. 24th. It now goes to the full Judiciary Committee. Three more members also requested to added to the list of co-sponsors for the bill.

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Obsolete Signs

July 28, 2010 by

Now that Arizona has passed constitutional carry – concealed carry without a permit – signs in Tucson parks that warned “Carry a firearm in this park is limited to persons who possess a permit” are coming down. Why? They are obsolete!

Here is a link to the KVOA story with video. Of course the reporter goes into anti-gun hysterics about kids being scared and that they will less safe.