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An Updated Analysis Of The NRA’s Finances

I have published financial analyses of the NRA by former board member Rocky Marshall in the past. Based upon an audit filed with the North Carolina Secretary of State’s Charities Division by the NRA, he has updated his analysis. I am publishing this with the permission of Rocky.

From Rocky:

RED FLAGS AND REALLY RED FLAGS

Revenue continues downward spiral as expenses (mostly legal) will likely increase in 2023-2024.
Net Income losses will likely continue 2023-2024.
Cash on hand is $12M and monthly expenses are $19M.
Recommended minimum cash on hand should be $57M.
Additional cash required to cover -$26m projected operating loss for 2023.
Additional cash required for contract liabilities of $40M to paid during 2023
Additional cash required to cover principal loan payments due in total of $28M during 2024.
Line of Credit and other Notes jumped 78%.
Increasing debt through loans to cover general operating expenses.
Capitalizes computers in excess of $500 and other fixed assets greater than $1,500.
Capitalization of purchases is artificially low and reduces expenses in order to boost net income.
Assets due from the NRA foundation are $31M and inflate the NRA balance sheet.
Most of the NRA foundations assets due have donor restrictions and cannot be used for general expenses.

National Rifle Association Financial Analysis Year Ending 2022					Estimate
(in millions $M)	2021	2022	$Change	%Change	2023
Revenue	233.5	213.5	-20	-9%	203
Expenses	228.2	228.6	0.4	0%	228.6
Net Income	5.3	-15.1	-20.4	-385%	-25.6
Members’ Dues	97.4	83.2	-14.2	-15%	75
Cash	30.4	12	-18.4	-61%	10
Liquidity Assets	65.9	43.1	-22.8	-35%	34
Note Payable & LOC	24.6	43.7	19.1	78%
Contract Liabilities	44.8	40.2	-4.6	-10%
Total Investments	71	71	0	0%
Total Investments pledges as collateral	53.6	44.2	-9.4	-18%
Percentage of Investments collateralized	75%	62%	-13%	-18%

In a marginally related aside, NRA In Danger is reporting that Wayne LaPierre has put his house in Great Falls, VA on the market. The asking price is $2.4 million. NRA In Danger is taking this as confirmation that the powers that be have made the decision to move to Texas. As with the bankruptcy case, the Board has been kept in the dark until it was a done deal. Read his or her full post.

National Rifle Association and Implications for the Board of Directors By Rocky Marshall

Rocky Marshall, former NRA Director and business executive, sent out this opinion piece on the NRA’s finances. I published his earlier analysis on their finances back in February of this year as well as a guest post from January.

His post is below and is presented exactly as it was sent to me.

The following opinion presents an updated financial analysis of the National Rifle Association (NRA) by examining the correlation between US gun sales and NRA revenues. Based on the analysis, revenue projections are made, highlighting the potential catastrophe the NRA has created.

The correlation analysis comparing US gun sales and NRA revenues reveals a consistent revenue coefficient of $12 per gun sold. Utilizing this coefficient, projections are made for the NRA’s revenues based on the number of guns sold from January to May 2023, which annualizes to 16.2 million units. Accordingly, estimated revenues for January to May are $81.4 million, with a forecast of $195 million for the entire year.

				Estimated
				Jan-May	Jan-Dec
NRA 990 IRS Reports	2020	2021	2022	2023	2023
Total NRA Revenue	282,030,375	227,419,952	205,314,000	81,418,224	195,403,738
US Gun Sales (in units)	21,799,813	18,868,921	16,550,340	6,784,852	16,283,645
Revenue$/Guns Sold Ratio	13	12	12	12	12

However, these projections starkly contrast with the NRA’s budget of $230 million, which appears unrealistic given the current downward trends and decline in gun sales. This raises concerns about the organization’s financial sustainability, particularly considering the anticipated legal expenses that may further strain its finances.

The Board of Directors plays a critical role in overseeing an organization’s financial management, ensuring transparency, and upholding accountability. However, in the case of the NRA, there are indications of a lack of transparency, as financial information is being withheld from Directors. This lack of disclosure suggests potential complicity in deceptive practices.

During the most recent NRA board meeting, no Directors questioned the financials or expressed concerns about the possibility of insolvency. This negligence is concerning, as it reflects a failure to fulfill their core responsibilities in safeguarding the NRA’s financial health and future.

This level of negligence exhibited by the NRA Directors is reminiscent of the children’s nursery rhyme; “The Three Blind Mice,” wherein the mice run around aimlessly until being caught by the Farmer’s wife. Not only has the NRA Board lost not only it’s sight, but also the ability to speak and question the deceptions that are presented at Board meetings.

The NRA’s financial crisis demands immediate attention and action. The alarming revenue projections, coupled with the lack of transparency and negligence displayed by the Board of Directors, pose significant threats to the organization’s survivability. Unfortunately, the NRA Board inactions and wonted neglect suggests they do not give a damn!

Source Gun Sales Data: National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), run by the FBI