by Rocky Marshall, former NRA Director and business executive, sent out this opinion piece on the NRA’s finances. I published his earlier analysis on their finances back in February of this year as well as a guest post from January.
His post is below and is presented exactly as it was sent to me.
The following opinion presents an updated financial analysis of the National Rifle Association (NRA) by examining the correlation between US gun sales and NRA revenues. Based on the analysis, revenue projections are made, highlighting the potential catastrophe the NRA has created.
The correlation analysis comparing US gun sales and NRA revenues reveals a consistent revenue coefficient of $12 per gun sold. Utilizing this coefficient, projections are made for the NRA’s revenues based on the number of guns sold from January to May 2023, which annualizes to 16.2 million units. Accordingly, estimated revenues for January to May are $81.4 million, with a forecast of $195 million for the entire year.
| Estimated | ||||||
| Jan-May | Jan-Dec | |||||
| NRA 990 IRS Reports | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | |
| Total NRA Revenue | 282,030,375 | 227,419,952 | 205,314,000 | 81,418,224 | 195,403,738 | |
| US Gun Sales (in units) | 21,799,813 | 18,868,921 | 16,550,340 | 6,784,852 | 16,283,645 | |
| Revenue$/Guns Sold Ratio | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
However, these projections starkly contrast with the NRA’s budget of $230 million, which appears unrealistic given the current downward trends and decline in gun sales. This raises concerns about the organization’s financial sustainability, particularly considering the anticipated legal expenses that may further strain its finances.
The Board of Directors plays a critical role in overseeing an organization’s financial management, ensuring transparency, and upholding accountability. However, in the case of the NRA, there are indications of a lack of transparency, as financial information is being withheld from Directors. This lack of disclosure suggests potential complicity in deceptive practices.
During the most recent NRA board meeting, no Directors questioned the financials or expressed concerns about the possibility of insolvency. This negligence is concerning, as it reflects a failure to fulfill their core responsibilities in safeguarding the NRA’s financial health and future.
This level of negligence exhibited by the NRA Directors is reminiscent of the children’s nursery rhyme; “The Three Blind Mice,” wherein the mice run around aimlessly until being caught by the Farmer’s wife. Not only has the NRA Board lost not only it’s sight, but also the ability to speak and question the deceptions that are presented at Board meetings.
The NRA’s financial crisis demands immediate attention and action. The alarming revenue projections, coupled with the lack of transparency and negligence displayed by the Board of Directors, pose significant threats to the organization’s survivability. Unfortunately, the NRA Board inactions and wonted neglect suggests they do not give a damn!
Source Gun Sales Data: National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), run by the FBI
And to think, I used to pay good money to read Sun or The Weekly World News. Watching the NRA’s downfall is like a slow motion car wreck.
Thankfully I am confident the leftover pieces will be gathered up together and eventually put to good use.
A 75 member Board CANNOT manage a $300,000,000 corporation. That is intentional. It prevents the Board from action to discipline employees starting with the EVP from stealing, lying, and disregarding Board mandates.
The NRA Directors are the proverbial mushrooms kept in the dark and showered in shit. Since 1997 they have been selected for their pasivity.
By the time the New York trial is over, I expect the NRA to be bankrupt. I’m not a lawyer but I wonder if there is any chance of clawing back some of the outlandish attorney fees paid to the Brewer Law Firm of the past few years, as well as the compensation paid to the favored few in the NRA hierarchy.
The NRA was started from scratch once before and could be again I suppose, I just hate to see all this happen.
“…but I wonder if there is any chance of clawing back some of the outlandish attorney fees paid to the Brewer Law Firm of the past few years, as well as the compensation paid to the favored few…”
I doubt it.
For one, that money is likely already spent, or most of it. Whatever climbs from the ashes of the current NRA would have to sue for its return, with accompanying expenses thereof, and a distinct possibility that any New NRA would be seen as a legally distinct entity, who probably would not have any legal interest or claim to that money. The only way NRA would have standing to close it back is if the present organization doesn’t die – and there’s too many shared skeletons and deliberately placed roadblocks for the current organization to even try.
Then, too, is the likelihood that the scammers, illicit recipients, leeches, and Brewer (but I repeat myself) have given themselves at least some official cover for getting the money.
The NRA might have committed fraud in handing it out, you see, but they received it in good faith and independent of that fraud and so it’s theirs, or at least that’s what they’ll claim. Lawsuit time, yet again.
And that all assumes the money is still there, anyway, and not frivoled away.
No, the only ones coming out of this as financial winners are the lawyers, and that only if the guilty parties amongst them stay out of prison (Brewer, etc).
The money is gone.
I am disgusted, dismayed, and dare I say a bit embarrassed to be part of the organization. I joined as a life member in the early 1980s as an NRA-certified police firearms instructor, when life memberships were something like $300 spread out over four payments. Something a young cop could afford. I will not give them one more cent until the entire BOD are fired. Gun rights are far more represented by organizations such as the GOA and SAF, who were the winners before the Supreme Court. You might recall that the NRA were Johnny Come Lately in the seminal 2A cases, and in fact opposed them. Worthless turds now.
I wrote this article to confirm where I think the NRA Revenues are trending currently. I made projections in February, and was curious about the current trajectory of gun sales. I surmised that the only hope that could alter the death spiral for the NRA would be if gun sales suddenly skyrocketed. If my theory is correct, increasing gun sales could translate into a windfall of revenues equal to $12/gun. As it turns out, gun sales have declined through the first 5 months, and I suspect my projections initially are right on track. I wrote this article as a confirmation that the NRA is heading towards insolvency and the BOD does nothing. They really do not give a damn about the NRA. In over 40 years in industry, and serving on Boards of Directors, I have never seen any group deny the obvious truth, continue to make disastrous decisions and refuse to correct course. The NRA has lost a million members and no change from NRA’s BOD. Truly unbelievable. Rocky Marshall
I actually have to wonder if their revenue stream is *worse* then that though.
Sure, sales of firearms in the past have correlated with NRA income, but that may well be divorcing lately. I know I haven’t sent them a single cent in close to a decade, maybe more.
As retailers and distributors continue to separate from the old tottering giant, like Brownells has, I expect the two figures, firearm sales and NRA income, to fall further apart as well.
Board is lied to about the failed First Amendment case’s chances with the Supreme Court. “When (not if) it is granted cert, what a fundraising boost”
The best thing that case has going for it is that the attorney of record is not Bill Brewer but Eugene Volokh of UCLA. He is, at least, a respected First Amendment scholar.