NRA finances Archives -

I have published financial analyses of the NRA by former board member Rocky Marshall in the past. Based upon an audit filed with the North Carolina Secretary of State’s Charities Division by the NRA, he has updated his analysis. I am publishing this with the permission of Rocky.

From Rocky:

RED FLAGS AND REALLY RED FLAGS

Revenue continues downward spiral as expenses (mostly legal) will likely increase in 2023-2024.
Net Income losses will likely continue 2023-2024.
Cash on hand is $12M and monthly expenses are $19M.
Recommended minimum cash on hand should be $57M.
Additional cash required to cover -$26m projected operating loss for 2023.
Additional cash required for contract liabilities of $40M to paid during 2023
Additional cash required to cover principal loan payments due in total of $28M during 2024.
Line of Credit and other Notes jumped 78%.
Increasing debt through loans to cover general operating expenses.
Capitalizes computers in excess of $500 and other fixed assets greater than $1,500.
Capitalization of purchases is artificially low and reduces expenses in order to boost net income.
Assets due from the NRA foundation are $31M and inflate the NRA balance sheet.
Most of the NRA foundations assets due have donor restrictions and cannot be used for general expenses.

National Rifle Association Financial Analysis Year Ending 2022					Estimate
(in millions $M)	2021	2022	$Change	%Change	2023
Revenue	233.5	213.5	-20	-9%	203
Expenses	228.2	228.6	0.4	0%	228.6
Net Income	5.3	-15.1	-20.4	-385%	-25.6
Members’ Dues	97.4	83.2	-14.2	-15%	75
Cash	30.4	12	-18.4	-61%	10
Liquidity Assets	65.9	43.1	-22.8	-35%	34
Note Payable & LOC	24.6	43.7	19.1	78%
Contract Liabilities	44.8	40.2	-4.6	-10%
Total Investments	71	71	0	0%
Total Investments pledges as collateral	53.6	44.2	-9.4	-18%
Percentage of Investments collateralized	75%	62%	-13%	-18%

In a marginally related aside, NRA In Danger is reporting that Wayne LaPierre has put his house in Great Falls, VA on the market. The asking price is $2.4 million. NRA In Danger is taking this as confirmation that the powers that be have made the decision to move to Texas. As with the bankruptcy case, the Board has been kept in the dark until it was a done deal. Read his or her full post.

The blog NRA In Danger has posted another look at the NRA’s finances by former director Rocky Marshall. As I noted in introducing his guest post on this blog, he has significant expertise in examining a company’s or organization’s finances. Rocky brings up the concept of industry related metrics as a way to validate financial forecasts. As it is, he holds that the NRA’s forecasts for revenue are unrealistic and have no substantiating business plan to validate them.

From Rocky at NRA In Danger:

A Realistic Projection: The obvious relationship most closely associated with NRA revenues are U.S. Gun sales¹. In reviewing US gun sales data, NRA Revenues will increase or decrease as gun sales vary from year to year. From 2004 through 2019, the NRA received on average $25 for every gun sold in the United States. However, after the breaking news of corruption in 2019, the NRA revenue dropped 48% to $13/gun sold.
The ratio of NRA Revenue/US Gun Sales is a useful metric because revenue for the NRA can be easily calculated for 2023 with a high degree of certainty. Based on the current declining trend of US gun sales, it is projected that total US gun sales will be similar to historical (pre-covid) norms of roughly 13 million guns sold². With this in mind, a quantifiable estimate of projected revenues for the NRA in 2023 is $169 million (13 million guns sold at $13/gun).
The NRA is projecting $230 million in revenue, which would equate to $18 for every gun sold in the US. This is the same group that also planned $241.2M for last year and missed this estimate by $36M. The NRA estimates are not based on any practical industry metrics or upon a viable business plan to increase revenue; but, instead are misleading the BOD once again into a false premise.

Using firearm sales as a proxy in the metric is interesting and makes sense. Both actual gun sales and actual NRA revenue are known from government reports. Actual gun sales are found from the Annual Firearms Manufacturing and Exportation Report submitted to BATFE and the NRA”s revenue is reported on the IRS Form 990. Forecasts on future firearm sales do come from the NSSF and the industry in various forms. The FBI’s NICS data could be used but, as we know, it isn’t a direct correlation with firearm sales. The NSSF-adjusted numbers would be more accurate.

When comparing the ratio of NRA Revenue/US Gun Sale for the pre-2019 and post-2019 time periods, there is another factor in play that was not mentioned. Pre-2019, it was often the case that if you purchased a new firearm from one of the major manufacturers, it would come with a coupon entitling the buyer to a free one-year membership in the NRA. I know Taurus offered this and I seem to remember getting the same offer from Marlin and Ruger. I also remember the Ruger campaign where they would donate $1 for each firearm sold if they reached the 1 million mark. That was in the 2012-2013 timeframe. The key point here is that the industry seems to have backed away from the NRA once the dirty laundry started coming out.

The second part of Rocky’s post on NRA In Danger deals with the cost of corruption in terms of lost revenue. Read the whole thing as Rocky provides hard numbers of the revenue drop and the amount is shocking. Suffice it to say, the longer that Wayne remains as CEO/Executive VP of the NRA, the more potential lost revenue.

NRA finances

An Updated Analysis Of The NRA’s Finances

NRA Finances And An Interesting Proxy