October NICS Show Slight Decline

The October 2013 NSSF-adjusted NICS checks are in and they show a slight decline from the same month in 2012. Nonetheless, if you look at the chart of NSSF-adjusted NICS checks for the last 14 years, both 2012 and 2013 are substantially higher than prior years.

From the NSSF:

The October 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,113,818 is a decrease of 0.5 percent compared to the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,118,994 in October 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted October 2013 NICS figure of 1,679,099 reflects a 4.6 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,604,743 in October 2012.

The next chart is quite interesting. It shows the last 12 months of year over year data. You can see the spike in December 2012 and January 2013 presumably caused the shooting in Newtown and the attendant rise in the call for more gun control. After that, it follows the more normal curve of trending down towards summer and then starting to show a rise as the hunting season arrives.

 

 As the distance from the tragedy in Newtown has grown, the year over year gains have diminished until in August and October they actually show decreases. I think that we are at a new normal with some months being higher and some months being less.That said, the slight increases and decreases will be at a much higher base than pre-2012.

While the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks are not a perfect correlation for gun sales, they are a good indicator of them. For the firearms industry the great growth spurts may be over and their backlogs decreasing but they are still producing at a level that is significantly higher than in the past.

Back From Hiatus

The NSSF-adjusted NICS checks rebounded from their August doldrums to again post a 2.7% gain for this September over previous September.

The September 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,034,701 is an increase of 2.7 percent compared to the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,007,259 in September 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted September 2013 NICS figure of 1,392,423 reflects a 4.0 percent decrease from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,450,737 in September 2012.

 The beginning of the fall hunting season may have provided some of the stimulus for this growth as may the recent clamor for gun control after the recent Navy Yard shootings.

NICS checks are an indicator but not a direct correlation with firearms sales. Many states use the NICS checks for concealed carry background check purposes. Moreover, in many states such as North Carolina, the concealed carry permit itself substitutes for the NICS check.

The Streak Had To Be Broken Sometime

After 38 straight months of increases in the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks when compared to the same month a year previously, the streak has ended. The NSSF-adjusted NICS checks for the month of August 2013 were 2.5% lower than August 2012.

The August 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,016,559 is a decrease of 2.5 percent compared to the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,042,924 in August 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted August 2013 NICS figure of 1,408,468 reflects a 7.0 percent decrease from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,514,696 in August 2012.

This NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,016,559, while being a 2.5 percent decrease from the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,042,924 in August 2012, is an increase of 24.6 percent over checks in August 2011.

The streak of increases began in May 2010.

It should be noted that NICS checks are not a perfect correlation with firearm sales. This is because a number of states such as Connecticut and Utah use the NICS database to perform background checks on applicants for concealed carry permits as well as existing holders.

As to the streak being broken, we saw signs of the slowing last month. While ammo is still in relatively short supply, you can find a full gun case including AR-15s at most Walmarts.

It’s Small But Still An Increase

The National Shooting Sports Foundation reported their adjusted NICS checks for the month of July 2013. It marks the 38th straight month in which the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks increased when compared to the same month a year previously.

The July 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 855,259 is an increase of 0.2 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 853,355 in July 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted July 2013 NICS figure of 1,271,571 reflects a 1.4 percent decrease from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,289,585 in July 2012.

The increase was only 0.2%. While still an increase, I think it may mark the end of the massive rush to purchase guns and ammo that started when President Barack Obama started proposing gun control measures in the wake of the Newtown shootings. That said, even if the August numbers come in lower than the previous period in 2012, we are seeing a new normal. Gun sales may have hit a plateau but it is a much higher plateau.

Of course, it is important to note that the adjusted NICS checks are not perfectly correlated with gun sales. The NICS background checks are used by many states for background checks on new and existing concealed carry permit holders.

An Increase Is Still An Increase

The National Shooting Sports Foundation adjusted NICS background check numbers are out for the month of June. They show a 3% increase over the month of June 2012. This marks the 37th straight month in which the NSSF-adjusted NICS figures have increased.

The June 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 872,025 is an increase of 3.0 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 846,437 in June 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted June 2013 NICS figure of 1,270,817 reflects a 1.5 percent decrease from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,290,210 in June 2012.

Note however that that unadjusted NICS numbers do show a decrease. I think we are starting to see the post-Newtown buying panic beginning to subside. My trips to the sporting goods department at my local Walmart have shown a gradual increase in the number of firearms available. In January, you might have found the odd shotgun or .22LR rifle. This past weekend at this Walmart I saw Colt, Bushmaster, and Windham Weaponry AR-15s along with a full complement of more traditional hunting rifles and shotguns. The gun case was full but the ammo supply were still virtually nonexistent.

It could be that we’ve reached a new plateau. Even if it is a plateau, the absolute number of firearms being sold are much greater than it was just two or three years ago. It will be interesting to see what July and August numbers show.

As always, I should caution that NICS background checks should be considered an indicator of trends and not sales. They are not a perfect correlation with firearms sales as several states use them for background checks on both new and active concealed carry permit holders.

Three Years And Counting

May 2013 became the 36th straight month – or three full years – in which the NSSF-adjusted NICS check figures topped the same period in the preceding year.

The May 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check
System (NICS) figure of 974,457 is an increase of 15.9 percent over the
NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 840,412 in May 2012. For comparison, the
unadjusted May 2013 NICS figure of 1,424,450 reflects a 9.1 percent
increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,305,392 in May 2012.

While the NICS checks are not a direct correlation with sales, they are an indicator of trends. The National Instant Criminal Background Check
System is also used by a number of states for concealed carry permit background checks for both new and active permits.

There are many anecdotal reports that a good part of current gun sales are from first time buyers. If this is indeed the case – and I’ve come to believe it is – then this is not a bubble but a shift in the demand curve.

This could also explain the scarcity of ammo. If I were to buy a new 9mm pistol, I have ammo for it that I’ve bought over the years. I don’t have to run out to Walmart, my local gun store, or go online right away to get ammo. However, if someone who has never owned a gun now buys one, he or she will need ammo for it. In the past week, I stopped into two Walmarts that were over 100 miles apart. Both had a decent selection of rifles and shotguns. Neither of them had any ammo in the more common calibers even though they have restrictions on the amount one can buy.

April Marks The 35th Record Setting Month

The National Shooting Sports Foundation has released its adjusted NICS data for the month of April. The trend of increases over the same month in the previous year remains unbroken at a record 35 months.

The April 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check
System (NICS) figure of 1,185,231 is an increase of 27.2 percent over
the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 931,660 in April 2012. For comparison,
the unadjusted April 2013 NICS figure of 1,702,455 reflects a 20.2
percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,416,074 in April
2012.

While the NICS checks are indicative of trends in firearm sales, they are not a perfect correlation as the NICS System is also used by states such as Kentucky and Iowa for their concealed carry background checks on both new applicants and current holders.

I know from speaking with several manufacturers in Houston at the NRA Annual Meeting that firearms are headed out the door as soon as they are made. I didn’t hear any manufacturer say they were building up inventory.

The Revised S. 374 – Fix Gun Checks Act of 2013

Today in the Senate Judiciary Committee business meeting, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) submitted a substitute amendment for S. 374. This substitute not only changed the name of the bill from the Protecting Responsible Gun Owners Act of 2013 to the Fix Gun Checks Act of 2013 but it also provided that action component that had been missing from the earlier version.

Title I of the bill deals with records submission by the states to the Federal government for purposes of integrating that information into the National Instant Criminal Background Check System. This section provides a carrot and stick approach to getting the states to submit data. It provides for a $100 million appropriation for grants to the states to improve their databases and to help them submit the necessary data to the FBI for NICS check. Up to 10% of this money could be used for a relief from disabilities program. That is, a program to report those to whom firearm rights are restored. I must say this would be a change coming from Chuck Schumer who has stymied the relief from firearms disabilities for years.

The improved data that the bill concerns would be the court records of  those convicted of a felony and those under either a court order or convicted of a misdemeanor crime of domestic violence as well as the mental health adjudications that would cause the loss of firearms rights. The stick component that goes with the grants from Attorney General would be a reduction in monies from the grants under Section 505 of the Omnibus Crime Control and Safe Streets Act of 1968. The states would have two years to bring the records submitted to the 50% or greater level or lose 3% of the Federal monies. It goes up to a 4% reduction after three years if the state didn’t submit at least 70% of the required records. Finally, after the third year there would be a mandatory 5% reduction for any state at less than 90% compliance.

All in all, I can’t argue too much about the intent of Title 1. It is in the interest of everyone to have the records at state level be as accurate as possible and it is also in the interest of everyone that the records in the NICS check system be accurate.

Title II of the S. 374 is a gun controller’s wet dream.

First, Section 202 makes it illegal for a firearm transfer to be made between unlicensed persons. It would required a licensed importer, manufacturer, or dealer to first take possession of it, enter it in their bound book, perform a NICS check, fill out a Form 4473, and then and only then, complete the transfer.

The exceptions include:

  • Bona fide gifts between spouses
  • Bona fide gifts between parents and children
  • Bona fide gifts between siblings
  • Bona fide gifts between grandparents and grandchildren
  • Transfers made from a decedent’s estate by will or operation of law
  • Temporary transfer between unlicensed persons if
    • It occurs in the home or curtilage (adjacent property) of the transferor
    • The firearm is not removed from the home
    • And the duration is less than 7 days.
  • Temporary transfers in connection with lawful hunting or sporting purposes
    • At a range if kept within the premises of the range at all times
    • At a “target firearm shooting competition” under the auspices of a State agency or non-profit organization and the firearm is kept within the premise of the shooting competition.
    • If while hunting to a person with the requisite hunting license during a designated season for a legal game animal.

Section 202 would set a maximum fee for doing the paperwork. It would also require the Form 4473 be kept by the FFL doing the transfer.

The penalty for violating this section is not at all clear. However, it seems to fall upon the FFL who would be liable for a $5,000 civil fine and an up to six months suspension of his or her license. (If you can find another penalty for violating Section 202, please let me know.) Sec. 202 become 18 USC 922 (s) which under 18 USC 924 (D)(5) stipulates a year’s imprisonment and a unspecified fine.

Section 203 is equally egregious. It mandates the reporting of lost or stolen firearms within 24 hours of discovery to the “Attorney General and to the appropriate authorities.” More importantly, the penalty for knowingly violating this provision is 5 years imprisonment!

If passed, the law goes into effect in 180 days from passage. So far, it has passed out of the Judiciary Committee on a 10-8 party-line vote.

While the gun prohibitionists would like to have bans on standard capacity magazines and semi-automatic firearms with ugly cosmetics, universal background checks is what they really want because the only way to make enforcement of them possible is a national firearms and firearm owners database. As Andy Grove, the former CEO of Intel Corporation, famously said, only the paranoid survive.

The February 2013 NICS Check Report

The National Shooting Sports Foundation has released their adjusted-NICS check statistics for February. Contrary to what I thought might happen, February 2013 checks were up 29.1% over the same period in 2012.

The February 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,634,309 is an increase of 29.1 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,266,344
in February 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted February 2013 NICS
figure of 2,298,561 reflects a 32.5 percent increase from the unadjusted
NICS figure of 1,734,646 in February 2012.

This marks the 33rd straight month with increases in NSSF-adjusted NICS checks over the same period in the prior year.

I had thought perhaps low inventories might have broken this string of increases but obviously not. In retrospect, visits to both small and large gun shops in the Piedmont Triad area of North Carolina should have told me that. In the early part of February I visited two small gun stores in the Kernersville area that were packed even though the inventory was down. I also visited the Winston-Salem Gander Mountain which actually had a decent inventory. That store was also crowded.

As always, it should be noted that there is not a direct correlation between NICS checks and gun sales. This is because a few states such as  Kentucky and Iowa use the National Instant Criminal Background Check System for CCW purposes. Moreover, in a number of states such as North Carolina, a concealed carry permit is accepted as a substitute for a NICS check.

Second Highest Adjusted NICS Checks On Record



The National Shooting Sports Foundation has posted their adjusted NICS checks for the month of January 2013 and they are astounding. Not only does this mark the 32nd straight month of increases compared to the prior period the year before but the numbers for January constitute the second highest month on record. Only the previous month of December eclipsed the January numbers.

The numbers:

The January 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,790,154 is an increase of 94.4 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 920,840
in January 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted January 2013 NICS
figure of 2,483,230 reflects an 81.4 percent increase from the
unadjusted NICS figure of 1,368,816 in January 2012.

94%! The anecdotal reports that I have read and heard about suggest many of the firearms buyers are first time buyers who have been spurred on in their purchases by the clamor for gun control since the Newtown shootings. As others have commented, just how many of these new gun owners are going to surrender a firearm that they have just bought at inflated prices? Precious few.

Looking at the chart below which compares the current period with the year prior period you can see a substantial increase starting in November 2012. While earlier months do show increases, it is nothing like the last three months and especially December 2012 and January 2013. If the NSSF-adjusted NICS checks are down in February 2013 compared to February 2012 I would speculate that it is tied to the low inventories in many gun shops.

As always I need to add the caveat that NICS checks are not a direct correlation with firearms purchases. Holders of concealed carry permits in a number of states do not have to go through a NICS check as the permit suffices for that. Moreover, states such as Kentucky, Iowa, and Michigan use the NICS system to do part of the background check for new carry permits as well as using it to check on existing permits. That said, the adjusted NICS checks are a good indicator of trends in firearm sales.