A NICS Check Two-Fer

The FBI’s NICS checks marked two milestones on Black Friday, November 27th. First, it had the highest recorded number of NICS checks on record for the day after Thanksgiving which is otherwise known as Black Friday. Second, and more importantly, it surpassed the previous one day record total for NICS background checks set on December 21, 2012.

The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) reports that it processed 185,345 transactions on Nov. 27, Black Friday, making the day the highest Black Friday ever and the highest day in NICS history. The highest previous day was Dec. 21, 2012 with 177,170 background checks. For the entire Nov. 26-29 2015 four-day Black Friday period 368,774 checks were completed, a 9.9 percent increase over the 335,555 checks conducted over the corresponding 2014 4-day period.

While the number of NICS checks are indicative of the number of firearm sales transactions, they are not perfectly correlated. For example, concealed carry permits in many states are taken as a substitute for the NICS background check. Thus, the actual number of firearms sold could be even greater than the number of checks reported.

Many factors probably are coming into play here. First, the ISIS attacks in Paris are still fresh in the minds of many people. I know my fellow Polite Society Podcast co-host Gary Daugherty has reported a significant rise in the number of people contacting him to take the Illinois concealed carry class. Second, the Democrats have decided the gun control is a winning issue for them and have gone all in on it. Finally, President Obama has said he wants to make gun control one of his primary focuses in his last year in office.

September NICS Checks Hits Record Levels

There seems to be a strong correlation between what comes out of the mouths of anti-gun rights politicians and rising NICS checks. Both President Obama and semi-presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton have recently said they admire the Australian model. Translated this means the confiscation and destruction of those firearms they don’t like which is the majority of firearms out there.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation reported their adjusted NICS checks for September yesterday along with the third quarter 2015 statistics. Suffice it to say, they hit records for the highest month and highest quarters on record.

The September 2015 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,071,945 is the highest September on record for the 17-year-old system, with an increase of 4.7 percent compared to the September 2014 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,024,272. For comparison, the unadjusted September 2015 NICS figure of 1,786,743 reflects a 23.4 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure 1,447,485 in September 2014.


The third quarter 2015 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 3,050,432 is the highest third quarter on record – a 7.8 percent increase over third quarter 2014.

You can see this graphically below:

What impresses me about these statistics is that they have surpassed similar periods in 2013 which was the immediate post-Newtown surge. Beyond the political rhetoric I’m not exactly sure what is responsible for this growth. The attendance at the local gun show this past weekend did not seem extraordinary and the number of AR15s for sale seemed to be down. However, on a personal note, I did get a message from one of the Complementary Spouse’s cousins asking for help in purchasing a firearm. He noted that he’d never owned a firearm but felt he should be armed.

As always, these NSSF-adjusted NICS checks do not have a direct correlation with sales. Several states use the NICS system for the issuance and continued inspection of concealed firearm permits. Moreover, the CCW permits from many states can be used as a substitute for a NICS check. This said, the adjusted NICS checks do show sales trends and they seem to be trending up again.

Second Highest Number Of NICS Checks On Record

The National Shooting Sports Foundation released their adjusted NICS checks for August 2015 yesterday. After hitting an all time high for a July in the previous month, the NSSF adjusted NICS checks were only the second highest on record for the the month.

The August 2015 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,031,959 is the second-highest August on record for the 17-year-old system, with an increase of 4.3 percent compared to the August 2014 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 989,337. For comparison, the unadjusted August 2015 NICS figure of 1,735,911 reflects a 12.8 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,538,347 in August 2014.

The previous high had been set in August 2012.

 Looking back to 2012 to see what might have made it the highest month, I find stories regarding an AWB for Illinois, the George Zimmerman-Trayvon Martin case, and the UN’s Arms Trade Treaty. Project Gunwalker aka Operation Fast and Furious had finally started to make the news as well.

While August is traditionally one of the slower months, we are also starting to see a trend of year over prior year increases starting up again.

As always, it should be noted that NICS checks do not have a perfect correlation with sales. Many states use them for checking on concealed carry holders. Moreover, in many states such as North Carolina, a CCW takes the place of having to run a NICS check. However, as a general indicator of the direction of sales, the adjusted NICS checks are quite adequate.

Highest July NICS Checks On Record

The National Shooting Sports Foundation adjusted NICS checks for July 2015 were just released today. They show the highest numbers for a July on record.

According to the release from the NSSF, there were 946,528 checks as adjusted. This was a 15.9% increase over July 2014. Going back to the July 2013 numbers which were the highest for July until now, the NSSF reported 855,259 checks as adjusted. Thus, July 2015 represented a 10.67% increase over the 2013 figure.


While 2014 was a bit of mixed bag, it appears that 2015, for the most part, is starting to show increases over the prior year’s statistics.



It is important to note that NICS checks are not a perfect correlation with gun sales. States such Iowa, Michigan, and Kentucky use the NICS system for background checks on both new and existing concealed carry permits. Moreover, in a number of states such as North Carolina, a concealed carry permit is accepted in lieu of running the NICS check.

NRA Corrects The PolitiFact Intern

PolitiFact weighed in on the criticism of the Social Security Administration’s proposal to report 4.2 million recipients to the NICS database as “mentally defective” because they have a named fiduciary to handle their money. They rated this “false” on their Truth-O-Meter saying, “Obama has not made a sweeping move to disarm gun-owning senior citizens, as these websites claim. We rate the claim False.”

The problem with letting interns handle something like this is that they often don’t dig deep enough. The other problem is that there really isn’t any accountability as the intern will be returning to school in a few weeks.

NRA Fact Checks Politifact on Social Security Administration Gun Grab
A recent Politifact article attempted to fact check news reports about the Obama Administration’s effort to strip the gun rights of millions of Americans who receive social security and disability benefits who also have a representative payee – someone who handles their finances.
Politifact failed to consult the most relevant source of all for their story, federal law, as a result, they got it wrong.
Politifact’s website identifies the writer as a “Politifact intern.”
The following Politifact claims are FALSE:
“The new policy would not ban all Social Security Administration (SSA) recipients from owning guns. Rather, it would only affect the small fraction who are deemed mentally incompetent, and who are thus are barred from purchasing guns under the law.”
“The policy would not take away guns from people who already own them. There is no indication that this policy would take guns away from people who already own guns. Rather, the policy would affect the ability of some mentally incompetent people from buying new guns.”
The facts:
·         Social Security Administration recipients who have a representative payee have not been deemed “mentally incompetent.” That is not a legal term recognized in federal law as it relates to prohibitions against acquiring or possessing firearms.
·         The federal prohibitions against acquiring or possessing firearms apply to those “adjudicated as a mental defective.” 
·         Under the proposed new policy, individuals who have representative payees would lose the right to possess any guns they might currently own and would be prohibited from purchasing new firearms.
·         The term “adjudication,” refers to a determination made after a judicial-type process that includes various due process protections. In no case does the federal law describe or contemplate the type of prohibition by bureaucratic fiat exercised by the SSA in developing its guidelines for those with “representative payees” assigned to their accounts.
·         The SSA’s representative payee system is not the type of process envisioned by federal firearms statutes.
·         Since 1968, federal law has barred the possession or acquisition of firearms by anyone who “has been adjudicated as a mental defective or has been committed to any mental institution.”[1]
·         The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives has issued regulations that define an “adjudication” as a “determination by a court, board, commission, or other lawful authority that a person is, as a result of marked subnormal intelligence, or mental illness, incompetency, condition, or disease: (1) Is a danger to himself or to others; or (2) Lacks the mental capacity to contract or manage his own affairs.” This includes a finding of insanity or incompetency in a criminal case.[2]
·         “Committed to a mental institution” is defined as a “formal commitment of a person to a mental institution by a court, board, or other lawful authority.” The definition makes clear that “[t]he term does not include a person in a mental institution for observation or a voluntary admission.”  The Supreme Court has held that an involuntary commitment is a serious deprivation of liberty that requires due process of law under the Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.[3]
·         Common reasons SSA beneficiaries request a representative payee include:
          Individual lives far from banks and grocery stores and may wish to have a family member or friend make bank deposits and grocery purchases for them;
          individual may not own a car and needs help with banking and shopping;
          individual may simply want help paying bills, or
          individual may not be good at balancing their checkbook.
[1] 18 U.S.C. §§ 922(d)(4), (g)(4).
[2] 27 CFR § 478.11.
[3] Addington v. Texas, 441 U.S. 418 (1979).

MDA Claiming False Victories

Moms Demand Action has never been above claiming a victory where there is none. I came across the picture below yesterday. It seemingly shows Academy Sports and Outdoor stores changing their policy because of a push from the Demanding Mommies. As I mentioned last week, they are on a campaign to get Cabela’s to kow-tow to their demands regarding the erroneously named “incomplete checks.”

They also posted a similar photo regarding Dick’s. Now I don’t care really what Dick’s does because I think they live up to their name post-Newtown.

I checked the Academy Sports website to see if they had any press release regarding this. I came up empty. Likewise, I came up empty on the Everytown Facebook page. Now it gets me to wondering if they just contrived this out of thin air. So I went to that fount of all knowledge, AR15.com, and posted a message on the General Forum asking about it. Out of the 88 replies, I got this one that seems to indicate Academy policy has always been to only release a firearm when they got a definitive OK. Bear in mind that this is from a part-time employee and not a store manager.

I work at Academy part time. Its 21 for handguns and pistol grip shotguns. 18 for long guns, period. I can’s even show a handgun or pistol grip shotgun to anyone under 21. But if you’re 18, you can buy any long gun. Academy won’t sell a gun without a “Proceed” or a CCW (at least in MS). IDK about historical data as I have only been there about 2 months.

Other comments seem to indicate that this policy probably came down from their risk management department a long time ago.

So is Academy Sports and Outdoors kow-towing to the Demanding Mommies? Probably not. They had, and have, a policy in place regarding NICS checks that was more stringent than called for by law. It’s not a victory because nothing was changed when Shannon and her minions came calling. It is a policy they like but it wasn’t a win.

SAF Rips Plan To Add Social Security Recipients To NICS Database

Alan Gottlieb and the Second Amendment Foundation didn’t mince words when they ripped into the proposal to include those who have trouble managing their Social Security checks in the NICS prohibited person database. They make an excellent point when they say that gun control supporters will see nothing wrong with this proposal.

From the SAF:

BELLEVUE, WA – The Second Amendment Foundation today responded to published reports that the Obama administration is pushing to prevent citizens collecting Social Security benefits from owning guns if they have problems managing their own affairs as proof the president wants to strip as many people as possible of their Second Amendment rights while he remains in office.

“This could possibly disqualify millions of people from owning firearms and might prevent many others from seeking help,” said SAF founder and Executive Vice President Alan M. Gottlieb, himself a U.S. Army veteran. “It’s unconscionable that someone who might have problems balancing a checkbook or managing their finances would suddenly find himself or herself stripped of their right to keep and bear arms.”

The plan, according to the Los Angeles Times, “could potentially affect millions whose monthly disability payments are handled by others.” The report says this push “is intended to bring the Social Security Administration in line with laws that prevent gun sales to felons, drug addicts, immigrants in the United States illegally, and others.”

“So, let’s see,” Gottlieb observed. “The Obama administration wants to equate some Social Security recipients who own guns with felons, drug addicts and illegal immigrants. That’s not simply insulting, it’s insidious, because who knows where this could lead?

“What’s next,” he wondered. “Will they take away someone’s right to vote, claiming they’re not competent?”

Published reports estimated about 4.2 million adults are now receiving monthly Social Security benefits that are managed by someone else, designated as “representative payees.”

“What may seem reasonable to people who reflexively support any and all gun control is really just one more effort by the Obama White House to erode Second Amendment rights any way they can,” Gottlieb stated. “Taking away someone’s Second Amendment rights because they can’t manage their finances is wrongheaded and repugnant.”

NRA Response To Social Security Proposal

The NRA-ILA issued an alert on Saturday after the story broke about the proposal to include 4.2 million Social Security recipients in the NICS database as prohibited persons. This proposal from the Social Security Administration has been traced back to a Presidential Memorandum issued in 2013. That memorandum, issued post-Newtown, ordered Federal agencies to improve the availability of relevant records for inclusion into the NICS database.

The alert does not explain why it took the SSA over two and a half years to come forward with this proposal. Moreover, the alert notes that other Federal agencies were named in the memorandum and might be expected to add even more names to the prohibited list.

There are links in the alert to communicate with your legislators.

From the NRA-ILA:

As the L.A. Times reported on July 18, the Social Security Administration (SSA) is currently developing a program to strip the Second Amendment Rights of over four million Americans currently receiving SSA benefits through a “representative payee.”  Not only would this amount to the largest gun grab in American history, but according to the published report, would take place without any due process protections for recipients, amounting to a nullification of Second Amendment rights for millions of Americans who don’t pose a threat to themselves or anyone else.
This new program appears to have been instigated by the SSA in response to a memorandum issued by Obama in January of 2013 which directed all federal agency executives to “improve the availability of records to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS).” This memorandum required all agency heads to submit to the Department of Justice (DOJ) a plan for “sharing all relevant Federal records” for submission to the NICS.

Take Action Now to Stop the Largest Gun Grab in American History

Are you a prohibited person? A new, unconstitutional Social Security Administration program will add over 4 million Americans to the prohibited persons list without due process. Contact your lawmakers today. Ask if you’re one of the 4 million.
Evidently, Obama’s SSA bureaucrats read “all relevant Federal records” to mean all Social Security recipients who have a “representative payee” assigned to their accounts to help them manage their payments and receipts. Obviously, many individuals swept up in this egregious case of bureaucratic over-reach would not otherwise be prohibited from owning, possessing, or acquiring firearms under federal law.
The federal prohibitions against acquiring or possessing firearms apply to those “adjudicated as a mental defective,” among others. The term “adjudication,” however, refers to a determination made after a judicial-type process that includes various due process protections. In no case does the federal law describe or contemplate the type of prohibition by bureaucratic fiat exercised by the SSA in developing its guidelines for those with “representative payees” assigned to their accounts.
But SSA is not alone in this directive. The memorandum names several agencies, including the Departments of Defense, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Transportation, and “such other agencies or offices as the Chair may designate.” Potentially, bureaucrats in all these agencies could be working hard to identify and forward “all relevant Federal records,” to the NICS pursuant to the Obama mandate.
In total, this program could easily grow to include many more millions of Americans who have any connection to the Federal government through the various agencies named in the memorandum.
Unfortunately, this fits a pattern of abuse within the Obama Administration which is clearly hell-bent on destroying the Second Amendment in any way possible. As we reported previously (here and here), the Veterans Administration (VA) has already implemented a similar program to designate veterans as “prohibited persons”  when they have a fiduciary assigned to administer their VA benefits. Like the SSA program described above, the VA procedures are also devoid of significant due process protections or any requirement that the beneficiary be found a danger to self or others. According to the L.A Times article, 177,000 vets have been swept into NICS with the bureaucratic short-cut.
The implications of this policy are too far reaching to fathom at present. Social Security is one of the more prolific and relied upon Federal programs in American history. That Obama’s directive could so easily be implemented within the SSA suggests that bureaucrats could effectively cloak such a program in any agency within the growing leviathan that is the federal government.
Please call or write your members of congress and demand that Obama’s attempts to implement the largest gun grab in American history be stopped in its tracks.  You can contact your U.S. Senators and Representatives at 202-225-3121. You can write your lawmakers by using our “Write Your Lawmakers” tool below.

It’s Because Of All Those School Shootings By Grandmas With Alzheimers

Alzheimers and dementia are dreadful diseases. They leave an individual as a shell of their former self. It hollows them out and leaves a physical shell with no soul. As I’ve often described it to others, the person you knew and loved has died. In their place is a sweet little lady (or man) who (hopefully) brightens up when she or he sees you. They will sweetly ask you, “How is your mother?”, and act exasperated when you tell them “You are my mother”.

I have seen the ravages of Alzheimers up close and personal. My mother died of it in 2008 after suffering from it for five to six years or more. Now my mother in law Grace whom I dearly love is moving towards the middle stages of the disease.

So why am I talking about Alzheimers and dementia?

Because of this as reported on the front page of the LA Times:

Seeking tighter controls over firearm purchases, the Obama administration is pushing to ban Social Security beneficiaries from owning guns if they lack the mental capacity to manage their own affairs, a move that could affect millions whose monthly disability payments are handled by others.


The push is intended to bring the Social Security Administration in line with laws regulating who gets reported to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, or NICS, which is used to prevent gun sales to felons, drug addicts, immigrants in the country illegally and others.


A potentially large group within Social Security are people who, in the language of federal gun laws, are unable to manage their own affairs due to “marked subnormal intelligence, or mental illness, incompetency, condition, or disease.”


There is no simple way to identify that group, but a strategy used by the Department of Veterans Affairs since the creation of the background check system is reporting anyone who has been declared incompetent to manage pension or disability payments and assigned a fiduciary.


If Social Security, which has never participated in the background check system, uses the same standard as the VA, millions of its beneficiaries would be affected. About 4.2 million adults receive monthly benefits that are managed by “representative payees.”


The move is part of a concerted effort by the Obama administration after the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Newtown, Conn., to strengthen gun control, including by plugging holes in the background check system.


But critics — including gun rights activists, mental health experts and advocates for the disabled — say that expanding the list of prohibited gun owners based on financial competence is wrongheaded.


Though such a ban would keep at least some people who pose a danger to themselves or others from owning guns, the strategy undoubtedly would also include numerous people who may just have a bad memory or difficulty balancing a checkbook, the critics argue.

So as the individuals – not all of whom are elderly by the way – suffer from a disease for which there is no known cure, the Obama Administration is looking for ways to rob them of even more of their dignity.

The whole idea is utterly repulsive.

If the criterion for being added to the NICS prohibited list is the inability to manage your own financial affairs, I have seen more people than I can count who would be on that list. I’m talking educated people – professionals. Many with advanced degrees and specialties. People with whom you would entrust your life if you were in the hospital yet who have debt out the ying-yang and are living paycheck to paycheck because they can’t get a handle on their finances.

Heck, if the inability to manage financial affairs was the sole criterion, most Democrats and many Republicans in Congress would be on the prohibited list given how they’ve helped screw up the economy. I’d add in every appointee in the Obama Administration that has helped grow the national debt to over $17 trillion.

So while we have a mental health system in crisis, while we have “lone wolf” Islamofascist terrorists killing unarmed Marines, while we have street gangs in major cities having more control of the city than the police, while we have young men who aren’t being treated for their psychosis engaging in mass murder, while we have all of this, the Obama Administration thinks the way to solve “gun violence” (sic) is to put grandma on the NICS prohibited list.

What the hell are they thinking?

Gun Sales Are Seeking A New Normal

The National Shooting Sports Foundation has released its adjusted-NICS figures for the month of November 2013.  It shows a drop of 14.2% from November 2012. 

The November 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,308,100 is a decrease of 14.2 percent compared to the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,525,177 in November 2012. For comparison, the unadjusted November 2013 NICS figure of 1,805,759 reflects a 9.6 percent decrease from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,997,703 in November 2012. NSSF-adjusted NICS for November 2013 is the second highest on record — an 18.8% increase over November 2011.

In many ways this really shouldn’t be surprising. While the peak in November 2012 was pre-Newtown, it reflects the uncertainty for gun owners of another presidential term for Barack Obama. If you look in the chart below of the adjusted NICS checks for the month of November going back to year 2000, you see definite spikes in 2008 and 2012.

 As I wrote last month, gun sales as reflected in the adjusted-NICS checks are trending towards a new normal. They are coming off their post-Newtown peaks but are still at a much higher overall level than they were pre-Newtown. Firearms manufacturers are still trying to catch up with the demand and are working through their backlog of orders. Tom Taylor of Mossberg confirmed this last Sunday on Tom Gresham’s Gun Talk in the first hour of the show.

NICS checks are an indicator of trends in gun sales but are not perfectly correlated with them. This is because many states use the NICS database for initial and continuing checks on their concealed carry permit holders. Moreover, in many states such as North Carolina, a concealed handgun permit substitutes for a NICS check.