by There seems to be a strong correlation between what comes out of the mouths of anti-gun rights politicians and rising NICS checks. Both President Obama and semi-presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton have recently said they admire the Australian model. Translated this means the confiscation and destruction of those firearms they don’t like which is the majority of firearms out there.
The National Shooting Sports Foundation reported their adjusted NICS checks for September yesterday along with the third quarter 2015 statistics. Suffice it to say, they hit records for the highest month and highest quarters on record.
The September 2015 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,071,945 is the highest September on record for the 17-year-old system, with an increase of 4.7 percent compared to the September 2014 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,024,272. For comparison, the unadjusted September 2015 NICS figure of 1,786,743 reflects a 23.4 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure 1,447,485 in September 2014.
The third quarter 2015 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 3,050,432 is the highest third quarter on record – a 7.8 percent increase over third quarter 2014.
You can see this graphically below:
What impresses me about these statistics is that they have surpassed similar periods in 2013 which was the immediate post-Newtown surge. Beyond the political rhetoric I’m not exactly sure what is responsible for this growth. The attendance at the local gun show this past weekend did not seem extraordinary and the number of AR15s for sale seemed to be down. However, on a personal note, I did get a message from one of the Complementary Spouse’s cousins asking for help in purchasing a firearm. He noted that he’d never owned a firearm but felt he should be armed.
As always, these NSSF-adjusted NICS checks do not have a direct correlation with sales. Several states use the NICS system for the issuance and continued inspection of concealed firearm permits. Moreover, the CCW permits from many states can be used as a substitute for a NICS check. This said, the adjusted NICS checks do show sales trends and they seem to be trending up again.
And it's not just "a few gun owners expanding their already-too-large collections", either. I've seen and known quite a few who "acquire" one gun (through a variety of legal means, but not always purchases), but then turn around and buy two or three more in a relatively short period, as they discover "gaps" in their needs (i.e. what their first gun can do — and more importantly, can't do). What we end up with is not the media-driven narrative of a few people who own dozens of guns, but a whole lot of people who own just three or four.
Cases in point: A friend inherited a .22 rifle. Took it shooting and loved it. Within a few months, he also purchased a 9mm pistol and a larger-caliber rifle, and is currently eyeing a shotgun. Another friend (unknown to the first) bought his own .22 rifle and is also now eyeing other firearms (all varieties) but hasn't purchased any yet (soon!). I myself went a similar track.
I know, "the plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data'," but this is a fairly consistent pattern I've seen emerging.