I normally do not report on the Democratic primary unless it reflects on gun rights. However, I got an email on Tuesday with an offer to see the pre-release results of the Topline WBUR survey of likely New Hampshire Democratic voters so long as I didn’t release the results before 5am EDT Wednesday.
I’m no fool. I jumped on the offer!
It looks like that post-Democratic debate that Hillary Clinton (D-carpetbagger) is now back in the lead against Bernie Sanders (D-VT). Even though Sanders and Clinton are essentially tied, the movement by Clinton from 31% to 38% is beyond the margin of error.
Vote preference with leaners Sept 2015 Oct 2015 Bernie
35% 34% Hillary
31% 38% Joe Biden 14% 9% Martin
1% 1% Jim Webb 2% 2% Lincoln
1% less than 1% Lawrence
NA 0% Some other
4% 4% Would not
2% 3% Don’t Know /
10% 9% Margin of
error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.
The poll did have some interesting tidbits. First, the majority of those polled thought Clinton could win (71%) in the general election while only a minority thought Sanders could win (39%). Clinton’s numbers rose significantly from September to October.
Second, while the overwhelming majority (80%) thought Bernie Sanders was trustworthy, only a bare majority (53%) thought Hillary Clinton was trustworthy. These numbers stayed consistent (+/- 2% points) between September and October.
It will be interesting to see how this continues to play out.